The Ogre, the Snake, and the Townsfolk: The US, Iraq and the UN

by Morpheus

After weeks of wrangling over, the UN Security Council finally passed a unanimous resolution calling for tougher inspections policies in Iraq. The 15-0 vote in came as no surprise to many, who were only wondering how long it would take the townsfolk (the rest of the world) to spar with the Ogre of the West (the US) over what to do about the snake (Iraq). Whether it was a victory for the townsfolk or the ogre is a debate for some. But honestly, given the factors and players involved - namely the snake - could the outcome really have been any different?

As everyone is well aware the US has been salivating at attacking their old friend turned foe, Iraq - or more precisely, the Saddam Hussein regime. The reasons range from cheap oil to unfinished business to delusions of Empire. However simply running amuck in Iraq hasn’t been so simple. Much to its dismay and surprise, the ogre found that the townspeople weren’t simply going to let it do as it wanted. It had to come, sit at the table, wrangle and plead and push and prod to get its way. However the townspeople found themselves similarly placed in an uncomfortable predicament. On the one hand they wanted to curb the ogre’s appetite. Yet on the other hand, they were expected to protect - of all things - a snake.

Let’s not kid ourselves here. While I don’t buy the line that Iraqis are waiting in my closet or that the regime is linked to Al-Queda, neither am I oblivious to what and who Saddam Hussein is: a brutal dictator, point blank. He is no better than a Pretorian Botha or a Zairean Mobutu. In fact he shares good company with the two, as both were curled up in the US bed at one point or the other.

For most of the 1980s Hussein was happy to kill, buck-dance and all else for the US. He played the part of their lackey, initiating a war against neighboring Iran in which over a million lives would be lost. He took US chemical weapons and then gassed his neighbors and citizenry without care or conscious (real CIA potential there). When the US had a “Change of Heart” his regime found itself out in the cold and now on the receiving end of what it had once helped to dish out upon others. So while I’m no fan of the ogre’s foreign policy, I’m certainly not caught up in the “poor Saddam” lament. His rap sheet at Amnesty International is longer than John Muhammad’s and Lee Malvo’s (who I am certain before this whole sniping business is said and done will take the blame for shooting everybody from John F. Kennedy Jr. to Marvin Gaye). Hussein is no one to cozy up to. And this has been the problem the townsfolk have faced.

The ogre is no doubt greedy, devious and malicious. But protecting the snake isn’t particularly appetizing. I mean it’s still a snake. Who’s putting their life on the line for that? The snake isn’t exactly a poster boy for the downtrodden and oppressed. If he could switch places with the ogre, he would in a heartbeat. To the townspeople there are three reasons to stand up to the ogre in defense of the snake. First off for many, the ogre is out of control. If the ogre doesn’t learn that the townspeople have a council set up for a reason, it will think it can do whatever it wants whenever it wants. Secondly, especially for the more powerful townsfolk, the snake has some importance (nice, slick, shiny black liquid stuff). That’s one key reason the ogre is going after his former lover to begin with. A minority of the townspeople also remember that if the ogre is allowed to go after the snake, many innocent citizenry (including children) will pay the price. So if it were up to the townspeople, they’d handle the snake the way they have been all along - wait him out. But there’s one vexing problem. Not only is the ogre persistent and bullying, he also has a legitimate point - at least in the legal sense.

When nations lose wars, they’re subjected to rules. Whether it’s the Treaty of Versailles or post-WWII Japan, there are always humiliating rules that limit sovereignty. That’s the way societies have worked for some time. Be happy it’s not the medieval or ancient era. All the Iraqi’s might have been put to the sword or sold off into slavery. Anyway, Hussein’s rules were to disarm and be relegated to modern day Germany or Japan status. Those are the risks you take when you want to run with the big dawgz---or in this case the big ogre. Japan tried it and got Fatman and Little Boy. Hussein actually got off easy. But, he hasn’t been playing by the rules---or at least he hasn’t been playing them wisely.

That the ogre is greedy, devious and malicious is again not a subject of debate. He is exactly that. He will use any excuse, within or without the law of the townspeople, to get his way. But with the world as small as it is, the blessings of the townsfolk make good political and economic sense. The wisest thing anyone, including the snake, can do is not give the ogre a legal pretense---because he’s always waiting eagerly for one. Hussein however has seemed hell-bent on giving the ogre all the precursors it needs to do as it wants.

This drama actually began with the early UN inspectors of the 1990s. Because of the Iraqi regime’s belligerent history, part of the treaty handed down involved the inability to develop weapons of mass destruction. Early inspections started out fine enough. But it soon turned into a joke. The Iraqi regime refused to comply with the UN officials, barring some from sites with armed soldiers or expelling others. A few were even shot at. Part of their reasoning seemed a sound enough complaint. They didn’t trust some of the inspectors and thought they were working under the auspices of the US. The other part of their reasoning has to do with either 1) a willful desire to ignore the UN out of pride or 2) they actually have something to hide. Both of these latter reasons are a poor excuse to hand the ogre a “smack-me-around-please” free pass.

Now I’ll go on record as saying the US defense and foreign policy folks could care less if Hussein gasses his people into extinction. Its concerns over Iraq lie elsewhere---like a few meters underground. But as I said the ogre is crafty, and uses whatever it can to its advantage. The weapons inspectors became a perfect leveling chip to present to the townspeople. Saddam Hussein is after all a brutal dictator who by history is not hesitant about initiating wars or using hideous weaponry. Rather than disarm and feed/maintain for his people, he instead impedes upon the ability of weapons inspectors to perform their jobs. And in doing so, he practically gives the ogre an open invitation. So when the US goes rumbling to the UN about Iraq, the townsfolk aren’t stupid. They know what the ogre is up to. They know this has little to do about oppression or terrorism and instead is about power and oil. But there’s not much many of them are going to do or can do, in order to protect a snake.

Now whether Hussein has weapons of mass destruction or not is unknown. But that he would use them against his neighbors, or who ever else, is not an issue of dispute. Again, Hussein is a brutal dictator---not Che Guevara. Practically all his neighbors would like him to be unarmed. And the UN does look rather foolish when it can’t even enforce its own rules and its inspectors get man-handled. So the townsfolk are caught between the ogre breathing down their necks and the snake playing a devious game of cat and mouse.

The only choice the UN had was to pass some new tough resolution. If they didn’t, the ogre could take this as a reason for war and like Outkast say---“Bombs Over Baghdad” would commence without hesitation. If the townsfolk don’t show they have some control over the world the ogre will proclaim them soft and take matters into his own hand---everywhere. The UN has done practically all it can possibly do to keep the ogre at bay. Because again, like it or not, the ogre has a point (even if he’s exploiting it for his own gain). The ball is now in the court of the snake, that is if he hasn’t already helped the ogre to paint him into a corner he can’t slither out of.

So what will Saddam Hussein’s Iraq do now? Hard to tell. The snake has a habit of doing the unexpected, in the face of common sense and preservation of his people. On the eve of the 1991 Gulf War as 500,000 US troops and multinational force prepared to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait, many world wide thought Hussein would blink. No one thought he would be crazy (or stupid) enough to take the bait. But he did. And the ogre beat his azz, soundly.

When the weapons inspectors were sent in, everyone thought for certain Hussein would follow the rules (and thus help ease the sanctions that have been the cause of much of his peoples’ suffering). But he decided to do otherwise.

So when the ogre went looking for an excuse to monopolize on spice he found one ready-made, knowing there was no other manner the townspeople could respond to Iraq’s barring of weapons inspectors. The ogre is now seizing upon the recent UN resolution as a victory. And more than one US official has made it plain that the slightest provocation by Iraq could result in war. But not everyone sees the UN resolution that way, certainly not the townspeople who helped draft it. In fact, that was the reason they passed it to begin with. If anyone has actually been made to back down here, it has been the ogre---no matter how much he’s been claiming a victory.

Anne Bayefsky, an international lawyer and professor of political science at York University, Canada, went over the resolution to illustrate these matters. She states, “Amid all the self-congratulation in Washington and New York that the United Nations Security Council vote on Iraq is indicative of shared global values, there is only one reason the outcome was 15-0. The resolution clearly inhibits America’s ability to justify going to war.”

Indeed the Bush Jr. Junta got out of this resolution, exactly what they didn’t want. Bush Jr. and company had demanded there be a one-step road to war with Iraq, something they have been voicing as a victory in the resolution. But in actuality UN Resolution 1441 says no such thing. Key paragraphs in the document state the following action by the UN if Iraq does not comply:

12. Decides to convene immediately upon receipt of a report in accordance with paragraphs 4 or 11 above, in order to consider the situation and the need for full compliance with all of the relevant Council resolutions in order to secure international peace and security;

13. Recalls, in that context, that the Council has repeatedly warned Iraq that it will face serious consequences as a result of its continued violations of its obligations.”

This is actually the multi-step plan put forward by the French all along, which the US so vehemently opposed. The resolution states that Iraq will “face serious consequences” only “in the context” of the preceding paragraph which calls for the reconvening of the Security Council should the inspectors encounter any obstructions or problems.

The earlier American draft resolution that Sec. Colin Powell was sent with had no “in that context” qualifying the justification of serious consequences. Also of importance, the paragraph in the earlier American version stated that failure by Iraq at any time to comply with the resolution will constitute a material breach of its obligations. The UN resolution was qualified in the final version by adding a requirement that such a breach “be reported to the Council for assessment.”

Bayefsky further states, "...the resolution displays no unanimity about what really counts as non-compliance by Iraq. And it requires the decision as to what counts to be made only after the Security Council is reconvened to discuss the issue. If America at that point has a judgment which is different than the council’s, it will have gained absolutely no kudos for engaging in U.N.-multilateralism. On the contrary, it can expect severe criticism for choosing to decide for itself, or with its allies outside the Security Council, what a council resolution means or authorizes."

In fact the UN resolution, in its steps on doling out force, has a waiting period of potentially 105 days (the 45 days for inspectors to go in, and the 60 days for inspectors to report), plus the waiting period required to give the Security Council an opportunity to debate and decide on how to proceed. This is much different than what the US administration has been gloating over.

As Bayefksy points out, “Now, the new Security Council resolution means America is required to wait for reports of inspectors, to wait until the Security Council is reconvened to consider their reports, and to give the council a real opportunity to take action on those reports. At that point if the Security Council refuses to authorize force, America will not be able to turn around and say deadlock in the Security Council is irrelevant because prior Security Council resolutions justify the use of force. For the new resolution surely modifies any possible prior approval by creating a new set of last-chance conditions.”

So don’t be fooled by the spin the White House Junta has been putting on this. Though they are clamoring about what they can do if Iraq makes one mistake, it is more unilateral talk that has nothing to do with what the townsfolk have sanctioned.

See full draft of UN Resolution 1441:

At least 10 Mid East governments have voiced collective support for the resolution. To them the Security Council vote on Friday was necessary to stop the ogre from running roughshod into the country, not to give him free reign. Syria stated that its decision to join in the unanimous 15-0 Security Council resolution to find potential nuclear, biological and chemical weapons was intended to spare the Iraqis from being attacked by the US.

"This resolution stopped an immediate strike against Iraq, but only an immediate strike," said Syria's foreign minister, Farouk al-Sharaa. "Now America cannot strike Iraq under U.N. auspices, although of course the United States can strike Iraq unilaterally outside international law. If this happens, the world will not be with the Americans. It will have to deal with all those demonstrators from Los Angeles to the Far East and the Arab countries."

The French newspaper Le Monde says, “It will be American intentions that are put to the test. Are inspections merely a pretext for military operations? Is the U.S. objective Iraqi disarmament, or is it ultimately to topple Saddam Hussein's regime?

The Iraqi government too has been trying to claim a victory. Initially calling the Security Council resolution "bad and unfair," Iraqi officials and news media have begun hailing it as an international effort to thwart the American desire for war. Whether that sentiment remains will be seen, as the first deadline for Iraq is set for this Friday, Nov. 15^th.

The hard truth of the matter is that despite how malicious the ogre may be, the snake dug this hole for himself long ago. When at the ogre’s behest he terrorized his own people and his neighbors, there was no protest against the ogre’s impediments upon the sovereignty of his enemies. There was no concern over the suffering of his people when he was sending them off to war, to fight the ogre’s enemy. If the snake expects the townspeople to make a human shield in order to defend him from the ogre, now that their love affair has ended, he’s delusional. Hopefully, for the sake of his people, he’ll take the only out the townsfolk have given him.

No one can tell what Saddam Hussein’s decision will be. Friday will be the first test. His wisest choice would be to comply with the UN and tread carefully. Will this ensure that he won’t be attacked by the ogre? No. The ogre may decide to do as it wishes, but it won’t be able to say the UN gave it tacit approval. And about the only thing that manages to slow down the ogre is world opinion. Unfortunately we have reached a point at which even that does not seem to be enough. The Bush Jr. Junta seems quite fine about striking out on its own and dealing with world sentiment later. Their excuse will be a shrug and a “we tried...”

Will compliance with the UN resolution mean the ogre won’t just make something up as a pretense for attack? No. The ogre is quite capable of just about anything when he really wants something. It could be in the end that Hussein doomed his regime the minute he decided to curl up in the ogre’s bed, even if the affair was short-lived. However in the end, the last chance the snake has rests in the townspeople. They’re not wholly dependable. They have no real way of stopping the giant. And they sure don’t plan to risk themselves or their children to save a brutal dictator’s regime. Yet it’s the best the snake’s got. If the ogre is going to attack anyway at least make him pay for it in some fashion. Don’t let history record this event as something the snake brought upon himself or was foolishly duped into. Tough decisions to make, but we all pay the price of making shady deals eventually….and the piper is hell to pay.

MORPHEUS- Exposin Fake Shyt

The views and opinions expressed herein by the author do not necessarily represent the opinions or position of Playahata.com.